房价，在继续跌！
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<span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">九成城市二手房价格，跌跌跌！买房，冲冲冲？</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">10月的房价，依然在降！</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">11月15日，国家统计局公布10月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体延续略降态势，同比涨幅继续回落。</span>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">房地产市场，开始入冬？</span></strong></span>
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<span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 12px;">资料图：城区一角。中新社记者 刘忠俊 摄</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">70城中5</span></strong><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">2城新房价格环比下跌</span></strong></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">根据国家统计局公布的10月数据，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持平，北京和上海环比分别上涨0.6%和0.1%，广州和深圳分别下降0.3%和0.2%。二线城市新房价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%；三线城市则环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">房价的走势从下跌城市的数量变化中体现得更为明显。<strong>全国70个大中城市中，新房价格出现环比下跌的城市数量为52个</strong>，相比9月的36个明显增多。</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 12px;">2021年10月70个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格指数。截图自国家统计局官网</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“这说明近期房地产市场的去库存压力和资金压力下，各大城市房企降价促销动作增加。” 易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示，除了一线城市略上涨外，其他两类城市均出现下跌，尤其是三四线城市最明显。后续需要防范三四线城市出现新的风险，包括房企销售困难导致项目开工意愿不强等。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">楼市所面临的较大下行压力自下半年以来逐渐显现。梳理发现，截至目前，<strong>全国已经有21个城市发布了房价的“限跌令”</strong>。有的城市直接发布行政命令，有的则是通过约谈房企限制恶意降价等方式，而这些城市绝大多数都是三、四乃至五线城市。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“相较一二线城市，三四线城市尤其是部分区域降温的速度比较快，而且房企在这些地方加快出货的意愿强烈，通过大幅调整销售价格的方式来出货的现象比较多。”58安居客房产研究院分院院长张波分析称，大多数一二线城市主要在信贷等各方面做一些调整之后，市场就会逐步回归正常，不一定需要“限跌令”。</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">70城中64城二手房价环比下跌</span></strong></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">相比于更受关注的新房，目前二手房市场的降温现象其实更为明显。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">国家统计局数据显示，10月一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，与上月相同，北京、上海、广州和深圳环比分别下降0.5%、0.4%、0.6%和0.2%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">从降价城市数量看，10月二手房房价环比下跌的城市数量达到了64个，即有九成左右的城市出现了明显的降价现象。</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 12px;">2021年10月70个大中城市二手住宅销售价格指数。截图自国家统计局官网</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“这也说明，<strong>这一波二手房的降温是全国范围性质的。</strong>”严跃进表示，后续在防范房企金融风险的基础上，二手房市场的风险也在扩大。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">一向炙手可热的二手房市场为何突然降温？其实它走低的态势先于新房。二手房价格在今年8月已经开始出现微弱的下跌，目前连跌三个月。且无论是环比跌幅数据还是同比涨幅数据看，其降温力度都要大于新房。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">贝壳研究院首席市场分析师许小乐解释说，当前价格的下跌是成交量下行的结果，是对前期过热的自然消化。一季度市场过热，重点城市房价上涨较多；二季度以来，二手房成交量保持下降，新房、土地市场也相继降温。</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">楼市或明年年初筑底？</span></strong></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">总体来看，70城房价自9月首次出现环比下跌，10月跌幅有所扩大。严跃进表示，据此可以认为当前房地产市场开始入冬。</span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“房地产市场的矛盾从‘过热’开始转为‘过冷’。这中间需要积极防范市场过快降温和出现房地产金融风险。”严跃进表示，<strong>从过去房地产市场的周期看，一般会下跌8个月。近期要注意御寒的操作。</strong></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">对于房价下跌的原因，许小乐认为是需求端和供给端同步降杠杆。“需求端，下半年以来居民按揭贷款的额度收缩，需求减弱；供给端，房企在较大的经营压力下加大降价促销力度和范围，二手房业主降价意愿增强，降价行为增多。”</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 12px;">资料图：正在建设的住宅区。(无人机拍摄) 中新社记者 吕明 摄</span>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">面对短期房价走低的压力，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">“降价促销”或成为近期楼市的主旋律。</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">贝壳研究院数据显示，目前50城二手房景气度指数在20以内，业主预期较弱。新房开发商为年底前加快销售，后期房企仍有动力继续降价促销。</span></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">但近期信贷政策的放松以及其他配套政策的推进，也让市场回暖的效应逐渐显现。10月房贷利率出现了年内的首次下降，部分城市放款速度在加快，房地产市场的合理资金需求正得到满足；房企融资环境也在适度调整，有利于改善市场预期。</span>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“后续政策效应逐渐显现，市场下行的速度也会放缓。尤其是</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">11月份预计部分城市销售市场会有底部反弹可能，客观上也会使得房价指数下跌的空间减少。</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">”严跃进称。</span></span>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;">“市场下行的局面有望在年底或明年年初筑底。预计到明年，房贷供需关系将回归正常，有利于合理住房消费正常满足。”许小乐也表示。</span>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 16px;">楼市的转折，你感受到了吗？</span></strong></span>
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<span style="color: rgb(198, 198, 199); font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-size: 13px;">来源：中国新闻网</span><br>
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